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Pick of the Day

Draymond Green O 7.5 Points (-120)

Tonight @ 8pm EST | NBA | GSW @ HOU

I’m a Draymond hater. I think he has a terrible attitude and intentionally tries to hurt players, but he’s a surprisingly consistent point scorer with an average of 9 points per game this season (slightly higher than last season). -120 implies a 55% win probability vs. 58% of games where he’s actually scored greater than 7.5 points. The media narrative paints a pretty horrible picture of his attitude problem (which is real) and it’s been compounded by his lackluster performance over the last 20 games (scored >7.5 points in only 40% of the last 20). However, if you look at his performance in the last 10 games, he’s actually scored >7.5 points 60% of the time! This include an impressive 21 point performance against the Spurs (3/31).

Dog of the Day

Joel Embiid Alt Line O 29.5 Points (+160, DraftKings)

Tonight @ 7:30pm EST | NBA | PHI @ MIA

Embiid is back from knee surgery and showing that he still has it! He scored 24 points against OKC in his first game back against a strong OKC team (3rd in West). I think he’ll score >29.5 tonight. In the games just prior to his injury, he scored >29.5 points in 22 straight games. This guy is a beast. In the 2022-23 season, he scored >29.5 in 63% of games! He won MVP that year of course.

He’s playing against a relatively strong Miami team with a tough defense ranking 3rd in offensive rebounds, 4th in points against, and 3rd points in the paint against, but Embiid is bound to get his team out its slump.